Ten years following the UK embarked on a hurried referendum that split the country and triggered chaos, a caution comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and electorate drifted into Brexit and the identical could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering convulsions for which no one is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two respected journalists from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a potentially contentious and monumental referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can build support very quickly," O’Toole remarked. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our region remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Seeks to Stir Debate
The duo have analysed the governmental, economic and societal arguments for any structural alteration in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the topic with a series of lectures that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everyone, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a binary, ambiguous question whose consequences have remained undefined because then you end up with an highly polarised community where those defeated are unable to accept losing and the victorious side lack clarity quite what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim such a time is looming, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity if and when there could be a national vote.
Absence of Serious Debate
Political rhetoric for and against unification has masked the lack of serious debate, stated McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the notion but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has occurred in academia but very few government figures or advocates want to engage with the fundamentals. For instance, which kind of country would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, neither author advocates unity or the current situation. They authors two essays that aim for objectivity in detailing the rationale for a united Ireland and the case against, marshalling economic and societal figures, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Debates encompass national emblems, duties, medical care, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to enlighten and encourage conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there hasn't quite been a debate," said the writer. "Debate suggests an acceptance of the idea that there could be reasonable perspectives on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters report they support unification but oppose increased taxation or introducing a different emblem to recognise pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"The Irish government must determine what the offer from Irish nationalism is beyond just stating: 'We desire a united Ireland and we value you'," stated O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
McBride believes a national vote in his era is probable and that it could happen suddenly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a feckless official who states: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, legitimate points, he commented. "Somebody will prevail here and the other side will in the end lose but each side has got valuable insights to gain from the opposing arguments."
Appeal for Wider Discussion
Westminster needed to engage with the dialogue, urged O’Toole. "This involves your state. It is a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish matter."
